(Editor’s note: This is the second in a three story series.)
The Ball State University Center for Business and Economic Research director zeroed in on the state of this state during a recent Batesville speech.
“Indiana’s economy has outperformed the nation as a whole in GDP (gross domestic product) growth and employment growth over this recession. However, our model suggests a mixed future. Overall economic activity in Indiana will continue to exceed the national average through much of this decade, slowing somewhat between 2018 and 2025,” according to a handout Michael Hicks, Ph.D., wrote.
“During this time period, employment growth will lag the nation as a whole” for two reasons. Slower population growth will limit labor-intensive business expansions. “Second, the state’s most intensive industries are those that continue to experience high levels of productivity growth, thus dampening demand for workers.”
Hicks, who has spoken nationally on CSPAN, MSNBC and NPR’s “All Things Considered,” said, “Indiana is a significant exporter of goods to the European Union, with more than 2 percent of GDP destined for Europe. Their recession will reduce demand for these goods and demand for employment in these firms. The slow growth in China and India add to lower demand for our goods.”
Hoosiers can expect personal income growth of 2.4 percent in 2013, followed by 2.1 percent raises in 2014.
He added, “In the short run, we expect a decline in personal income in durable goods manufacturing, retail, transportation, information and finance, insurance and real estate sectors. We expect growth in mining and utilities, construction, health care, and nondurable goods manufacturing.”
“Domestic and defense spending cuts will likely affect services for the poor and public infrastructure grant programs. Likewise, defense spending may well impact the state, with the potential for significant cutbacks at U.S. Navy and joint training centers in southern and southwestern Indiana. Also, cessation of planned acquisition of aircraft, ground weapons systems and electronics may also impact civilian employment in many businesses within the state.”
The forecast for 11 southeastern Indiana counties “ranges widely from rapid growth to continuing struggles with outmigration and job loss. Overall, we expect the region to see population growth significantly exceeding the state as a whole through 2025. This is important because population growth is a bellwether indicator of overall economic performance.”
The director said, “Not surprisingly, the largest growth will be concentrated near the Cincinnati and Indianapolis metropolitan areas. However, growth in the more centrally located areas of Jennings, Ripley, and Jefferson counties will be unusually strong for nonmetropolitan areas.”
Hicks estimated the average population growth rates during 2013-18 and 2019-25. The best gainers were Dearborn (10.55 percent and 7.44 percent, respectively), followed by Union (5.49 and 7.12) and Franklin (4.67 and 6.18). Rush County’s numbers were in the middle (3.25 and 4.55). So were Decatur County’s estimates (4.05 and 5.46). Ohio showed the lowest long-term population gain.
According to the director, Batesville is growing modestly, “but you have all the features a growing community would wish to have, very good schools ... a very livable community,” despite no water features or mountains.” He suggested test scores at other county schools are the reason Ripley won’t add many families.
The I-74 and I-65 corridors will see more economic growth than the I-70 region due to the proximity of larger metropolitan areas at either end of those interstate legs, according to the expert.
One bit of good state news: “I do expect personal income to grow a little bit faster than the national average. Hoosiers will catch up to the American standard of living.”
In southeastern Indiana, Hicks estimated personal income growth rates over the short and long terms. Decatur County at .28 percent and .32 percent will do better than Rush County, which will see salaries falling (-.23 percent and -.21 percent), but not as much as Fayette County. Counties with best prospects for raises were Dearborn and Switzerland.
Hicks observed, “Major threats to the region are weakness in the available and the appropriate labor force in some communities, changes to the structure of casino gaming for southern counties and national economic conditions.” If a casino is constructed west of Cincinnati in Ohio, “in my judgment, it is likely to cause the closure of one in southeastern Indiana” or dramatically decrease the tax take.