Rushville Republican

Agriculture

May 30, 2014

Drop in global malnutrition depends on ag productivity, climate change

WEST LAFAYETTE - Global malnutrition could fall 84 percent by the year 2050 as incomes in developing countries grow - but only if agricultural productivity continues to improve and climate change does not severely damage agriculture, Purdue University researchers say.

“The prevalence and severity of global malnutrition could drop significantly by 2050, particularly in the poorest regions of the world,” said Thomas Hertel, Distinguished Professor of Agricultural Economics. “But if productivity does not grow, global malnutrition will worsen even if incomes increase. Climate change also adds a good deal of uncertainty to these projections.”

Hertel and doctoral student Uris Baldos developed a combination of economic models - one that captures the main drivers of crop supply and demand and another that assesses food security based on caloric consumption - to predict how global food security from 2006 to 2050 could be affected by changes in population, income, bioenergy, agricultural productivity and climate.

According to the models, income growth coupled with projected increases in agricultural productivity could raise more than half a billion people out of extreme hunger by mid-century.

Income is also set to eclipse population as the dominant driver of food security, a “historical first,” said Baldos.

“We expect that the population driver will diminish relative to per capita income in the coming decades, especially in the developing world,” he said.

Growth in income will allow people to increase the amount of food they consume and “upgrade” their diets by adding more meat and processed foods to staples such as crops and starches. The shift toward a diet higher in calories and richer in protein could lift many in hunger-stricken regions such as sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, China and Mongolia above the malnutrition line.

Globally, the volume of food consumed per capita could increase by about 31 percent. In developing regions with strong growth in income and population, consumption could rise by about 56 to 75 percent.

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